Modelos de series temporales para pronóstico de la demanda eléctrica del sector de explotación de minas y canteras en Colombia
Pronosticar la demanda eléctrica es de suma importancia para la planeación estratégica de una nación. La literatura ofrece múltiples acercamientos para el desarrollo de modelos de pronóstico enfocados principalmente en la demanda nacional agregada, dejando de lado los análisis sectoriales, en particular a los sectores no residenciales. En este artículo, utilizando la metodología de análisis de Series de Tiempo, se ajustan, validan y comparan tres diferentes modelos para pronosticar la demanda eléctrica del sector minas y canteras, uno de los más representativos en el consumo eléctrico colombiano. Los modelos ajustados incluyen un modelo de componentes aditivo, un SARIMA y un Holt Wiatednters. Los resultados indican que el modelo que present... Ver más
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Modelos de series temporales para pronóstico de la demanda eléctrica del sector de explotación de minas y canteras en Colombia Holt, C. C. (1957) Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages. Pittsburgh, Pa.: Carnegie Institute of Technology, Graduate school of Industrial Administration. Pérez Osorno, M. and Betancur Vargas, A. (2017) ‘Gestión del sector minero en el ámbito nacional y su relación entre el accionar gubernamental y empresarial’, Recerca. Revista de pensament i anàlisi., 0(20), pp. 157–184. https://doi.org/10.6035/Recerca.2017.20.8. Percy, S. D., Aldeen, M. and Berry, A. (2018) ‘Residential demand forecasting with solar-battery systems: A survey-less approach’, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy. IEEE, 9(4), pp. 1499–1507. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2018.2791982. Mohandes, M. (2002) ‘Support vector machines for short-term electrical load forecasting’, International Journal of Energy Research, 26(4), pp. 335–345. doi: 10.1002/er.787. Nunes Da Silva, I. and Carli Moreira De Andrade, L. (2016) ‘Efficient neurofuzzy model to very short-term load forecasting, IEEE Latin America Transactions, 14(2), pp. 721–728. https://doi.org/10.1109/TLA.2016.7437215. Kubli, M., Loock, M. and Wüstenhagen, R. (2018) ‘The flexible prosumer: Measuring the willingness to co-create distributed flexibility’, Energy Policy, 114(August 2017), pp. 540–548. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.12.044. Jiménez, J., Donado, K. and Quintero, C. G. (2017) ‘A methodology for short-term load forecasting’, IEEE Latin America Transactions, 15(3), pp. 400–407. https://doi.org/10.1109/TLA.2017.7867168. Jimenez, J. et al. (2019) ‘Multivariate Statistical Analysis based Methodology for Long-Term Demand Forecasting’, IEEE Latin America Transactions, 17(01), pp. 93–101. https://doi.org/10.1109/TLA.2019.8826700. Islam, M. A. et al. (2020) ‘Energy demand forecasting’, in Energy for Sustainable Development. Elsevier, pp. 105–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-814645-3.00005-5. IEA (2017) Electricity information overview, IEA Statistics. https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/ElectricityInformation2017Overview.pdf. Gulay, E. (2019) ‘Forecasting the Total Electricity Production in South Africa : Comparative Analysis to Improve the Predictive Modelling Accuracy’, 7(November 2018), pp. 88–110. https://doi.org/10.3934/energy.2019.1.88. Rahman, A. and Ahmar, A. S. (2017) ‘Forecasting of primary energy consumption data in the United States: A comparison between ARIMA and Holter-Winters models’, in AIP Conference Proceedings, p. 020163. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5002357. Goodarzi, S., Perera, H. N. and Bunn, D. (2019) ‘The impact of renewable energy forecast errors on imbalance volumes and electricity spot prices’, Energy Policy. Elsevier Ltd, 134(March), pp. 110827. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.06.035. Gil, D. (2016) ‘Pronóstico de la demanda mensual de electricidad con series de tiempo’, Revista EIA, 13(26), pp. 111–120. https://doi.org/10.24050/reia.v13i26.749. Garzón Medina, D. O. and Marulanda García, G. A. (2017) ‘Estimación del consumo eléctrico colombiano en el corto y largo plazo empleando regresión multivariable y series temporales’, AVANCES Investigación en Ingeniería, 14, p. 155. https://doi.org/10.18041/1794-4953/avances.1.1294. Franco, C. J., Velásquez, J. D. and Olaya, I. (2008) ‘Caracterización de la demanda mensual de electricidad en Colombia usando un modelo de componentes no observables’, Cuadernos de Administración, 21(36), pp. 221–235. http://www.scielo.org.co/pdf/cadm/v21n36/v21n36a10.pdf. EEA (2017) Final energy consumption of electricity by sector, Final energy consumption by sector and fuel. Available at: https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/final-energy-consumption-by-sector-9/assessment-1. Deb, C. et al. (2017) ‘A review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption’, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. Elsevier Ltd, 74(February), pp. 902–924. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.02.085. Box, G. E. P. and Jenkins, G. M. (1976) Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Revised Ed. San Francisco : Holden-Day. Barreto, C. and Campo, J. (2012) ‘Relación a largo plazo entre consumo de energía y PIB en América Latina : Una evaluación empírica con datos panel using panel data’, Ecos de Economia, (35), pp. 73–89. R Core Team (2017) ‘R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing’. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. https://www.r-project.org/. Rocha, H. R. O. et al. (2018) ‘Forecast of distributed electrical generation system capacity based on seasonal micro generators using ELM and PSO’, IEEE Latin America Transactions, 16(4), pp. 1136–1141. https://doi.org/10.1109/TLA.2018.8362148. Revista EIA - 2020 info:eu-repo/semantics/article Text http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ART http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1 http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 Yang, Y. et al. (2016) ‘Modelling a combined method based on ANFIS and neural network improved by DE algorithm: A case study for short-term electricity demand forecasting’, Applied Soft Computing, 49, pp. 663–675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2016.07.053. Romero, F. T., Hernandez, J. D. C. J. and Lopez, W. G. (2011) ‘Predicting electricity consumption using neural networks’, IEEE Latin America Transactions, 9(7), pp. 1066–1072. https://doi.org/10.1109/TLA.2011.6129704. XM (2018) Información inteligente. http://informacioninteligente10.xm.com.co/demanda/paginas/default.aspx. Winters, P. R. (1960) ‘Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages’, Management Science, 6(3), pp. 324–342. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.3.324. Wang, Y. et al. (2012) ‘Application of residual modification approach in seasonal ARIMA for electricity demand forecasting: A case study of China’, Energy Policy. (Special Section: Frontiers of Sustainability), 48, pp. 284–294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.05.026. Velásquez, J. D., Franco, C. J. and García, H. A. (2009) ‘Un modelo no lineal para la predicción de la demanda mensual de electricidad en colombia’, Estudios Gerenciales, 25(112), pp. 37–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0123-5923(09)70079-8. SUI (2016) Sistema Único de Información de Servicios Públicos (SUI), Consolidado Energía. Available at: http://reportes.sui.gov.co/fabricaReportes/frameSet.jsp?idreporte=ele_com_094. Stoffer, D. (2012) ‘astsa: Applied Statistical Time Series Analysis’. Shyh-Jier Huang and Kuang-Rong Shih (2003) ‘Short-term load forecasting via ARMA model identification including non-gaussian process considerations’, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems. IEEE, 18(2), pp. 673–679. https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2003.811010. Rueda, V. M., Velásquez, J. D. and Franco, C. J. (2011) ‘Avances recientes en la predicción de la demanda de electricidad usando modelos no lineales’, Dyna, 167, pp. 36–43. http://www.scielo.org.co/pdf/dyna/v78n167/a04v78n167.pdf. Azadeh, A., Ghaderi, S. F. and Sohrabkhani, S. (2008) ‘A simulated-based neural network algorithm for forecasting electrical energy consumption in Iran’, Energy Policy, 36(7), pp. 2637–2644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.02.035. Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 Demanda Eléctrica Planeación Colombia Modelo de Componentes Español Holt Winters Minas y Canteras Modelos de Pronóstico 18 Series de Tiempo Jimenez, Maritza Lotero, Laura Arango, Adriana Mariño, Maria D. Pronosticar la demanda eléctrica es de suma importancia para la planeación estratégica de una nación. La literatura ofrece múltiples acercamientos para el desarrollo de modelos de pronóstico enfocados principalmente en la demanda nacional agregada, dejando de lado los análisis sectoriales, en particular a los sectores no residenciales. En este artículo, utilizando la metodología de análisis de Series de Tiempo, se ajustan, validan y comparan tres diferentes modelos para pronosticar la demanda eléctrica del sector minas y canteras, uno de los más representativos en el consumo eléctrico colombiano. Los modelos ajustados incluyen un modelo de componentes aditivo, un SARIMA y un Holt Wiatednters. Los resultados indican que el modelo que presenta un menor error de pronóstico es el modelo Holt Winters. Estrategia SARIMA 35 Fondo Editorial EIA - Universidad EIA Artículo de revista https://revistas.eia.edu.co/index.php/reveia/article/view/1458 Revista EIA Publication application/pdf SARIMA Time series forecasting for Colombian mining and quarrying electricity demand Demand forecasting is of utmost importance for strategic decision making of a nation. Literature offers multiple approaches to the development of forecast models focused in aggregate demand, also, little attention has been paid to non-residential sector demand forecasts. In this paper, using Time Series Analysis approach, three different models are fitted, tested and compared to forecast electricity demand in mining and quarrying sector, one of the most representative non-residential sector for colombian electricity demand. Fitted models include an additive model, a SARIMA and a Holt Winters model. Results indicate that better accuracy is provided the by Holt Winters model. Time Series Forecasting Models Electricity Demand Holt Winters Mining and Quarrying Journal article Colombia Planning Strategy Additive Model 2020-12-31 https://revistas.eia.edu.co/index.php/reveia/article/download/1458/1378 2020-12-31 14:30:36 2463-0950 10.24050/reia.v18i35.1458 https://doi.org/10.24050/reia.v18i35.1458 23 35007 pp. 1 1794-1237 2020-12-31 14:30:36 |
institution |
UNIVERSIDAD EIA |
thumbnail |
https://nuevo.metarevistas.org/UNIVERSIDADEIA/logo.png |
country_str |
Colombia |
collection |
Revista EIA |
title |
Modelos de series temporales para pronóstico de la demanda eléctrica del sector de explotación de minas y canteras en Colombia |
spellingShingle |
Modelos de series temporales para pronóstico de la demanda eléctrica del sector de explotación de minas y canteras en Colombia Jimenez, Maritza Lotero, Laura Arango, Adriana Mariño, Maria D. Demanda Eléctrica Planeación Colombia Modelo de Componentes Holt Winters Minas y Canteras Modelos de Pronóstico Series de Tiempo Estrategia SARIMA SARIMA Time Series Forecasting Models Electricity Demand Holt Winters Mining and Quarrying Colombia Planning Strategy Additive Model |
title_short |
Modelos de series temporales para pronóstico de la demanda eléctrica del sector de explotación de minas y canteras en Colombia |
title_full |
Modelos de series temporales para pronóstico de la demanda eléctrica del sector de explotación de minas y canteras en Colombia |
title_fullStr |
Modelos de series temporales para pronóstico de la demanda eléctrica del sector de explotación de minas y canteras en Colombia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelos de series temporales para pronóstico de la demanda eléctrica del sector de explotación de minas y canteras en Colombia |
title_sort |
modelos de series temporales para pronóstico de la demanda eléctrica del sector de explotación de minas y canteras en colombia |
title_eng |
Time series forecasting for Colombian mining and quarrying electricity demand |
description |
Pronosticar la demanda eléctrica es de suma importancia para la planeación estratégica de una nación. La literatura ofrece múltiples acercamientos para el desarrollo de modelos de pronóstico enfocados principalmente en la demanda nacional agregada, dejando de lado los análisis sectoriales, en particular a los sectores no residenciales. En este artículo, utilizando la metodología de análisis de Series de Tiempo, se ajustan, validan y comparan tres diferentes modelos para pronosticar la demanda eléctrica del sector minas y canteras, uno de los más representativos en el consumo eléctrico colombiano. Los modelos ajustados incluyen un modelo de componentes aditivo, un SARIMA y un Holt Wiatednters. Los resultados indican que el modelo que presenta un menor error de pronóstico es el modelo Holt Winters.
|
description_eng |
Demand forecasting is of utmost importance for strategic decision making of a nation. Literature offers multiple approaches to the development of forecast models focused in aggregate demand, also, little attention has been paid to non-residential sector demand forecasts. In this paper, using Time Series Analysis approach, three different models are fitted, tested and compared to forecast electricity demand in mining and quarrying sector, one of the most representative non-residential sector for colombian electricity demand. Fitted models include an additive model, a SARIMA and a Holt Winters model. Results indicate that better accuracy is provided the by Holt Winters model.
|
author |
Jimenez, Maritza Lotero, Laura Arango, Adriana Mariño, Maria D. |
author_facet |
Jimenez, Maritza Lotero, Laura Arango, Adriana Mariño, Maria D. |
topicspa_str_mv |
Demanda Eléctrica Planeación Colombia Modelo de Componentes Holt Winters Minas y Canteras Modelos de Pronóstico Series de Tiempo Estrategia SARIMA |
topic |
Demanda Eléctrica Planeación Colombia Modelo de Componentes Holt Winters Minas y Canteras Modelos de Pronóstico Series de Tiempo Estrategia SARIMA SARIMA Time Series Forecasting Models Electricity Demand Holt Winters Mining and Quarrying Colombia Planning Strategy Additive Model |
topic_facet |
Demanda Eléctrica Planeación Colombia Modelo de Componentes Holt Winters Minas y Canteras Modelos de Pronóstico Series de Tiempo Estrategia SARIMA SARIMA Time Series Forecasting Models Electricity Demand Holt Winters Mining and Quarrying Colombia Planning Strategy Additive Model |
citationvolume |
18 |
citationissue |
35 |
publisher |
Fondo Editorial EIA - Universidad EIA |
ispartofjournal |
Revista EIA |
source |
https://revistas.eia.edu.co/index.php/reveia/article/view/1458 |
language |
Español |
format |
Article |
rights |
Revista EIA - 2020 http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 |
references |
Holt, C. C. (1957) Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages. Pittsburgh, Pa.: Carnegie Institute of Technology, Graduate school of Industrial Administration. Pérez Osorno, M. and Betancur Vargas, A. (2017) ‘Gestión del sector minero en el ámbito nacional y su relación entre el accionar gubernamental y empresarial’, Recerca. Revista de pensament i anàlisi., 0(20), pp. 157–184. https://doi.org/10.6035/Recerca.2017.20.8. Percy, S. D., Aldeen, M. and Berry, A. (2018) ‘Residential demand forecasting with solar-battery systems: A survey-less approach’, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy. IEEE, 9(4), pp. 1499–1507. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2018.2791982. Mohandes, M. (2002) ‘Support vector machines for short-term electrical load forecasting’, International Journal of Energy Research, 26(4), pp. 335–345. doi: 10.1002/er.787. Nunes Da Silva, I. and Carli Moreira De Andrade, L. (2016) ‘Efficient neurofuzzy model to very short-term load forecasting, IEEE Latin America Transactions, 14(2), pp. 721–728. https://doi.org/10.1109/TLA.2016.7437215. Kubli, M., Loock, M. and Wüstenhagen, R. (2018) ‘The flexible prosumer: Measuring the willingness to co-create distributed flexibility’, Energy Policy, 114(August 2017), pp. 540–548. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.12.044. Jiménez, J., Donado, K. and Quintero, C. G. (2017) ‘A methodology for short-term load forecasting’, IEEE Latin America Transactions, 15(3), pp. 400–407. https://doi.org/10.1109/TLA.2017.7867168. Jimenez, J. et al. (2019) ‘Multivariate Statistical Analysis based Methodology for Long-Term Demand Forecasting’, IEEE Latin America Transactions, 17(01), pp. 93–101. https://doi.org/10.1109/TLA.2019.8826700. Islam, M. A. et al. (2020) ‘Energy demand forecasting’, in Energy for Sustainable Development. Elsevier, pp. 105–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-814645-3.00005-5. IEA (2017) Electricity information overview, IEA Statistics. https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/ElectricityInformation2017Overview.pdf. Gulay, E. (2019) ‘Forecasting the Total Electricity Production in South Africa : Comparative Analysis to Improve the Predictive Modelling Accuracy’, 7(November 2018), pp. 88–110. https://doi.org/10.3934/energy.2019.1.88. Rahman, A. and Ahmar, A. S. (2017) ‘Forecasting of primary energy consumption data in the United States: A comparison between ARIMA and Holter-Winters models’, in AIP Conference Proceedings, p. 020163. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5002357. Goodarzi, S., Perera, H. N. and Bunn, D. (2019) ‘The impact of renewable energy forecast errors on imbalance volumes and electricity spot prices’, Energy Policy. Elsevier Ltd, 134(March), pp. 110827. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.06.035. Gil, D. (2016) ‘Pronóstico de la demanda mensual de electricidad con series de tiempo’, Revista EIA, 13(26), pp. 111–120. https://doi.org/10.24050/reia.v13i26.749. Garzón Medina, D. O. and Marulanda García, G. A. (2017) ‘Estimación del consumo eléctrico colombiano en el corto y largo plazo empleando regresión multivariable y series temporales’, AVANCES Investigación en Ingeniería, 14, p. 155. https://doi.org/10.18041/1794-4953/avances.1.1294. Franco, C. J., Velásquez, J. D. and Olaya, I. (2008) ‘Caracterización de la demanda mensual de electricidad en Colombia usando un modelo de componentes no observables’, Cuadernos de Administración, 21(36), pp. 221–235. http://www.scielo.org.co/pdf/cadm/v21n36/v21n36a10.pdf. EEA (2017) Final energy consumption of electricity by sector, Final energy consumption by sector and fuel. Available at: https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/final-energy-consumption-by-sector-9/assessment-1. Deb, C. et al. (2017) ‘A review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption’, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. Elsevier Ltd, 74(February), pp. 902–924. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.02.085. Box, G. E. P. and Jenkins, G. M. (1976) Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Revised Ed. San Francisco : Holden-Day. Barreto, C. and Campo, J. (2012) ‘Relación a largo plazo entre consumo de energía y PIB en América Latina : Una evaluación empírica con datos panel using panel data’, Ecos de Economia, (35), pp. 73–89. R Core Team (2017) ‘R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing’. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. https://www.r-project.org/. Rocha, H. R. O. et al. (2018) ‘Forecast of distributed electrical generation system capacity based on seasonal micro generators using ELM and PSO’, IEEE Latin America Transactions, 16(4), pp. 1136–1141. https://doi.org/10.1109/TLA.2018.8362148. Yang, Y. et al. (2016) ‘Modelling a combined method based on ANFIS and neural network improved by DE algorithm: A case study for short-term electricity demand forecasting’, Applied Soft Computing, 49, pp. 663–675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2016.07.053. Romero, F. T., Hernandez, J. D. C. J. and Lopez, W. G. (2011) ‘Predicting electricity consumption using neural networks’, IEEE Latin America Transactions, 9(7), pp. 1066–1072. https://doi.org/10.1109/TLA.2011.6129704. XM (2018) Información inteligente. http://informacioninteligente10.xm.com.co/demanda/paginas/default.aspx. Winters, P. R. (1960) ‘Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages’, Management Science, 6(3), pp. 324–342. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.3.324. Wang, Y. et al. (2012) ‘Application of residual modification approach in seasonal ARIMA for electricity demand forecasting: A case study of China’, Energy Policy. (Special Section: Frontiers of Sustainability), 48, pp. 284–294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.05.026. Velásquez, J. D., Franco, C. J. and García, H. A. (2009) ‘Un modelo no lineal para la predicción de la demanda mensual de electricidad en colombia’, Estudios Gerenciales, 25(112), pp. 37–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0123-5923(09)70079-8. SUI (2016) Sistema Único de Información de Servicios Públicos (SUI), Consolidado Energía. Available at: http://reportes.sui.gov.co/fabricaReportes/frameSet.jsp?idreporte=ele_com_094. Stoffer, D. (2012) ‘astsa: Applied Statistical Time Series Analysis’. Shyh-Jier Huang and Kuang-Rong Shih (2003) ‘Short-term load forecasting via ARMA model identification including non-gaussian process considerations’, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems. IEEE, 18(2), pp. 673–679. https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2003.811010. Rueda, V. M., Velásquez, J. D. and Franco, C. J. (2011) ‘Avances recientes en la predicción de la demanda de electricidad usando modelos no lineales’, Dyna, 167, pp. 36–43. http://www.scielo.org.co/pdf/dyna/v78n167/a04v78n167.pdf. Azadeh, A., Ghaderi, S. F. and Sohrabkhani, S. (2008) ‘A simulated-based neural network algorithm for forecasting electrical energy consumption in Iran’, Energy Policy, 36(7), pp. 2637–2644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.02.035. |
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