Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.

Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.

La previsión del mercado de valores es un proceso importante y desafiante que influye en las decisiones de inversión. Este artículo presenta un diseño experimental que tiene como objetivo medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores. El estudio se realizó utilizando información del índice financiero S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select. Este fue presentado a 670 estudiantes de las ciudades de Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia) y Lima (Perú). Los datos fueron recopilados y presentados a través de un instrumento que pedía a los participantes que hicieran un juicio de pronóstico del dicho índice financiero con base en los gráficos presentados, representando... Ver más

Guardado en:

Revista Finanzas y Política Económica

2248-6046

2011-7663

Gómez Mejía, Alina

Peña, Victor Alberto

UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA DE COLOMBIA

10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.10

11

2019-07-01

389

409

Colombia

Pronóstico financiero

Viés de otimismo

Prognóstico financeiro

Julgamento

Finanças comportamentais

Sesgo de optimismo

Heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento

Juicio

Heurística de anclaje y ajuste

Finanzas conductuales

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Victor Alberto Peña, Alina Gómez Mejía - 2019

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spelling Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
Pronóstico financiero
Revista Finanzas y Política Económica
Universidad Católica de Colombia
Artículo de revista
2
11
Viés de otimismo
Prognóstico financeiro
Julgamento
Finanças comportamentais
Sesgo de optimismo
Heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento
Juicio
Gómez Mejía, Alina
La previsión del mercado de valores es un proceso importante y desafiante que influye en las decisiones de inversión. Este artículo presenta un diseño experimental que tiene como objetivo medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores. El estudio se realizó utilizando información del índice financiero S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select. Este fue presentado a 670 estudiantes de las ciudades de Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia) y Lima (Perú). Los datos fueron recopilados y presentados a través de un instrumento que pedía a los participantes que hicieran un juicio de pronóstico del dicho índice financiero con base en los gráficos presentados, representando un año, un mes, una semana y el último valor de cierre del índice. De esta manera, era posible medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste para establecer si la presencia de un valor inicial afectaba el pronóstico financiero. Además, el estudio buscó determinar si el juicio emitido estaba sesgado hacia una posición optimista o pesimista, demostrando así la presencia de un error o sesgo de expectativa, conocido como sesgo de optimismo. Los resultados se analizaron usando el método de mínimos cuadrados, y el panel de datos confirmó que la heurística de anclaje y ajuste influye en el pronóstico del índice financiero utilizado en el estudio. Del mismo modo, se infirió la presencia de sesgo de optimismo en el proceso cognitivo del pronóstico financiero.
Heurística de anclaje y ajuste
Peña, Victor Alberto
Finanzas conductuales
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Victor Alberto Peña, Alina Gómez Mejía - 2019
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https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/view/2920
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Journal article
Behavioral finance
Judgment
Anchor and adjustment heuristic
Optimism bias
Financial forecast
Stock market forecasting is an important and challenging process that influences investment decisions. This paper presents an experimental design that aims to measure the influence of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in these forecasts. The study was conducted using information from the S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select financial index; this was presented to 670 students from the cities of Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia), and Lima (Peru). Data was collected and presented through an instrument that asked participants to make a forecast judgment of the said financial index, based on the presented graphics, representing a year, a month, a week, and the last closing value of the index. Thus, it was possible to measure the influence of the anchor and adjustment heuristic in order to establish whether the presence of an initial value affected the financial forecast. Similarly, the study sought to determine whether the judgment issued was biased toward an optimistic or pessimistic position, thereby proving the presence of an error or expectation bias, known as optimism bias. The results were analyzed using the least squares method, and the data panel confirmed that the anchoring and adjustment heuristic influences the forecast of the financial index used in the study. Similarly, the presence of optimism bias in the cognitive process of forecasting in finance was inferred.
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389
2019-07-01T00:00:00Z
https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/2920/3078
2019-07-01T00:00:00Z
https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/2920/3489
https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/download/2920/3111
409
2019-07-01
2248-6046
2011-7663
https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.10
10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.10
institution UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA DE COLOMBIA
thumbnail https://nuevo.metarevistas.org/UNIVERSIDADCATOLICADECOLOMBIA/logo.png
country_str Colombia
collection Revista Finanzas y Política Económica
title Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
spellingShingle Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
Gómez Mejía, Alina
Peña, Victor Alberto
Pronóstico financiero
Viés de otimismo
Prognóstico financeiro
Julgamento
Finanças comportamentais
Sesgo de optimismo
Heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento
Juicio
Heurística de anclaje y ajuste
Finanzas conductuales
Behavioral finance
Judgment
Anchor and adjustment heuristic
Optimism bias
Financial forecast
title_short Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
title_full Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
title_fullStr Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
title_full_unstemmed Efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
title_sort efecto de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores.
title_eng Effect of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in stock market forecasts.
description La previsión del mercado de valores es un proceso importante y desafiante que influye en las decisiones de inversión. Este artículo presenta un diseño experimental que tiene como objetivo medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste y el sesgo de optimismo en los pronósticos del mercado de valores. El estudio se realizó utilizando información del índice financiero S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select. Este fue presentado a 670 estudiantes de las ciudades de Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia) y Lima (Perú). Los datos fueron recopilados y presentados a través de un instrumento que pedía a los participantes que hicieran un juicio de pronóstico del dicho índice financiero con base en los gráficos presentados, representando un año, un mes, una semana y el último valor de cierre del índice. De esta manera, era posible medir la influencia de la heurística de anclaje y ajuste para establecer si la presencia de un valor inicial afectaba el pronóstico financiero. Además, el estudio buscó determinar si el juicio emitido estaba sesgado hacia una posición optimista o pesimista, demostrando así la presencia de un error o sesgo de expectativa, conocido como sesgo de optimismo. Los resultados se analizaron usando el método de mínimos cuadrados, y el panel de datos confirmó que la heurística de anclaje y ajuste influye en el pronóstico del índice financiero utilizado en el estudio. Del mismo modo, se infirió la presencia de sesgo de optimismo en el proceso cognitivo del pronóstico financiero.
description_eng Stock market forecasting is an important and challenging process that influences investment decisions. This paper presents an experimental design that aims to measure the influence of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in these forecasts. The study was conducted using information from the S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select financial index; this was presented to 670 students from the cities of Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia), and Lima (Peru). Data was collected and presented through an instrument that asked participants to make a forecast judgment of the said financial index, based on the presented graphics, representing a year, a month, a week, and the last closing value of the index. Thus, it was possible to measure the influence of the anchor and adjustment heuristic in order to establish whether the presence of an initial value affected the financial forecast. Similarly, the study sought to determine whether the judgment issued was biased toward an optimistic or pessimistic position, thereby proving the presence of an error or expectation bias, known as optimism bias. The results were analyzed using the least squares method, and the data panel confirmed that the anchoring and adjustment heuristic influences the forecast of the financial index used in the study. Similarly, the presence of optimism bias in the cognitive process of forecasting in finance was inferred.
author Gómez Mejía, Alina
Peña, Victor Alberto
author_facet Gómez Mejía, Alina
Peña, Victor Alberto
topicspa_str_mv Pronóstico financiero
Viés de otimismo
Prognóstico financeiro
Julgamento
Finanças comportamentais
Sesgo de optimismo
Heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento
Juicio
Heurística de anclaje y ajuste
Finanzas conductuales
topic Pronóstico financiero
Viés de otimismo
Prognóstico financeiro
Julgamento
Finanças comportamentais
Sesgo de optimismo
Heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento
Juicio
Heurística de anclaje y ajuste
Finanzas conductuales
Behavioral finance
Judgment
Anchor and adjustment heuristic
Optimism bias
Financial forecast
topic_facet Pronóstico financiero
Viés de otimismo
Prognóstico financeiro
Julgamento
Finanças comportamentais
Sesgo de optimismo
Heurística da ancoragem e do ajustamento
Juicio
Heurística de anclaje y ajuste
Finanzas conductuales
Behavioral finance
Judgment
Anchor and adjustment heuristic
Optimism bias
Financial forecast
citationvolume 11
citationissue 2
publisher Universidad Católica de Colombia
ispartofjournal Revista Finanzas y Política Económica
source https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/view/2920
language Inglés
format Article
rights http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Victor Alberto Peña, Alina Gómez Mejía - 2019
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
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