Variación de la tasa de cambio como un proceso estocástico y su efecto sobre el déficit fiscal colombiano
El artículo considera un proceso con reversión a la media y saltos para describir la dinámica de la tasa de cambio nominal peso-dólar, que luego es incorporada al desarrollo de un modelo para el cálculo del déficit fiscal colombiano.
Guardado en:
1794-1113
2346-2140
2017-11-09
119
145
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
id |
15669e43c56a9d70785f975537c99ec3 |
---|---|
record_format |
ojs |
spelling |
Variación de la tasa de cambio como un proceso estocástico y su efecto sobre el déficit fiscal colombiano Penati, A. (1983). Expansionary fiscal policy and the exchange rate: A review (Politique budgétaire expansionniste et taux de change: une analyse) (Políticas fiscales expansionistas y el tipo de cambio: un examen de la cuestión). Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 30(3), 542-569. Bates, D. S. (1988). Pricing options under jump-diffusion processes. Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. Bouakez, H., Chihi, F. y Normandin, M. (2014). Measuring the effects of fiscal policy. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 47, 123-151. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.08.004 Bouakez, H. y Eyquem, A. (2014). Government spending, monetary policy, and the real exchange rate. Journal of International Money and Finance, 56, 178-201. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.09.010 Branger, N. y Larsen, L. S. (2013). Robust portfolio choice with uncertainty about jump and diffusion risk. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(12), 5036-5047. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.08.023 Buiter, W. H. (1983). Measurement of the public sector deficit and its implications for policy evaluation and design. Staff Papers, 30(2), 306-349. Checherita-Westphal, C. y Rother, P. (2012). The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area. European Economic Review, 56(7), 1392-1405. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.06.007 Duffie, D. (2005). Credit risk modeling with affine processes. Journal of Banking & Finance, 29(11), 2751-2802. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2005.02.006 Erceg, C. J., Guerrieri, L. y Gust, C. (2005). Expansionary fiscal shocks and the us trade deficit. En International Finance (Vol. 8, pp. 363-397). http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2005.00164.x Jiang, G. J. (1998). Jump-Diffusion Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics — Estimation via Indirect Inference, Working Paper, University of Groningen, The Netherlands. Jin, X. y Zhang, K. (2013). Dynamic optimal portfolio choice in a jump-diffusion model with investment constraints. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(5), 1733-1746. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.01.017 Kim, S. y Roubini, N. (2008). Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S. Journal of International Economics, 74(2), 362-383. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.05.012 Mao, X. (1997). Stochastic differential ecuations and applications, Horwood, Chichester. Moreno, J. (2011). Estimación de parámetros en ecuaciones diferenciales estocásticas aplicadas a finanzas. odeon, 6, 131-144. Phillips, P. C. B. (1972). The structural estimation of a stochastic differential equatiuon system. Econométrica, 40, pp. 1021-1041. Baldacci, E. y Kumar, M. (2010). Fiscal deficits, public debt, and sovereign bond yields. imf Working Papers (Vol. 10). Rodríguez, A. y Venegas, F. (2010). Efectos del tipo de cambio sobre el déficit público: modelos de simulación Monte Carlo. Contaduría y administración, 232, 11-40. Tsay, R. (2002). Analysis of Financial Time Series. New Jersey: Wiley. Uhlenbeck, G. E. y Ornstein, L. S. (1930). On the theory of Brownian motion. Physical Review, 36, pp. 823-841. Vaciseck, O. (1977). An equilibrium characterization of the Term Structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 5, pp. 177-188. Zhong, Y., Bao, Q. y Li, S. (2015). fx options pricing in logarithmic mean-reversion jumpdiffusion model with stochastic volatility. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 251, 1-13. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2014.11.040. info:eu-repo/semantics/article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 http://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ARTREF info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 Text Ball, C. y Torous, W. (1983). A simplified jump process for common stock returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative, 18(1), 53-65. Akgiray, V. y Booth, G. G. (1988). Mixed Diffusion-Jump Process Modeling of Exchange Rate Movements. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 70(4), 631-637. Agnello, L., Furceri, D. y Sousa, R. M. (2013). How best to measure discretionary fiscal policy? Assessing its impact on private spending. Economic Modelling, 34, 15-24. Universidad Externado de Colombia El artículo considera un proceso con reversión a la media y saltos para describir la dinámica de la tasa de cambio nominal peso-dólar, que luego es incorporada al desarrollo de un modelo para el cálculo del déficit fiscal colombiano. Granger Castaño, Clark tasa de cambio déficit fiscal procesos estocásticos 12 Núm. 12 , Año 2017 : Enero-Junio Artículo de revista application/pdf text/html Publication ODEON https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Aase, K. K. (1988). Contingent claims valuation when the security price is a combination of an itô process and random point process. Stochastic Processes and Their Applications, 28, 185-220. https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/odeon/article/view/5098 Español We consider a process with mean reversion and jumps to describe the dynamics of the nominal peso-dollar exchange rate, which is then incorporated into the development of a model for the calculation of the Colombian fiscal deficit. Variation of the exchange rate as a process stochastic and its effect on the Colombian fiscal deficit Journal article Exchange rate fiscal deficit stochastic processes 145 119 https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/odeon/article/download/5098/6154 https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/odeon/article/download/5098/6348 1794-1113 https://doi.org/10.18601/17941113.n12.05 10.18601/17941113.n12.05 2017-11-09T00:00:00Z 2017-11-09 2346-2140 2017-11-09T00:00:00Z |
institution |
UNIVERSIDAD EXTERNADO DE COLOMBIA |
thumbnail |
https://nuevo.metarevistas.org/UNIVERSIDADEXTERNADODECOLOMBIA/logo.png |
country_str |
Colombia |
collection |
Revista ODEON |
title |
Variación de la tasa de cambio como un proceso estocástico y su efecto sobre el déficit fiscal colombiano |
spellingShingle |
Variación de la tasa de cambio como un proceso estocástico y su efecto sobre el déficit fiscal colombiano Granger Castaño, Clark tasa de cambio déficit fiscal procesos estocásticos Exchange rate fiscal deficit stochastic processes |
title_short |
Variación de la tasa de cambio como un proceso estocástico y su efecto sobre el déficit fiscal colombiano |
title_full |
Variación de la tasa de cambio como un proceso estocástico y su efecto sobre el déficit fiscal colombiano |
title_fullStr |
Variación de la tasa de cambio como un proceso estocástico y su efecto sobre el déficit fiscal colombiano |
title_full_unstemmed |
Variación de la tasa de cambio como un proceso estocástico y su efecto sobre el déficit fiscal colombiano |
title_sort |
variación de la tasa de cambio como un proceso estocástico y su efecto sobre el déficit fiscal colombiano |
title_eng |
Variation of the exchange rate as a process stochastic and its effect on the Colombian fiscal deficit |
description |
El artículo considera un proceso con reversión a la media y saltos para describir la dinámica de la tasa de cambio nominal peso-dólar, que luego es incorporada al desarrollo de un modelo para el cálculo del déficit fiscal colombiano.
|
description_eng |
We consider a process with mean reversion and jumps to describe the dynamics of the nominal peso-dollar exchange rate, which is then incorporated into the development of a model for the calculation of the Colombian fiscal deficit.
|
author |
Granger Castaño, Clark |
author_facet |
Granger Castaño, Clark |
topicspa_str_mv |
tasa de cambio déficit fiscal procesos estocásticos |
topic |
tasa de cambio déficit fiscal procesos estocásticos Exchange rate fiscal deficit stochastic processes |
topic_facet |
tasa de cambio déficit fiscal procesos estocásticos Exchange rate fiscal deficit stochastic processes |
citationissue |
12 |
citationedition |
Núm. 12 , Año 2017 : Enero-Junio |
publisher |
Universidad Externado de Colombia |
ispartofjournal |
ODEON |
source |
https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/odeon/article/view/5098 |
language |
Español |
format |
Article |
rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ |
references |
Penati, A. (1983). Expansionary fiscal policy and the exchange rate: A review (Politique budgétaire expansionniste et taux de change: une analyse) (Políticas fiscales expansionistas y el tipo de cambio: un examen de la cuestión). Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 30(3), 542-569. Bates, D. S. (1988). Pricing options under jump-diffusion processes. Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. Bouakez, H., Chihi, F. y Normandin, M. (2014). Measuring the effects of fiscal policy. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 47, 123-151. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.08.004 Bouakez, H. y Eyquem, A. (2014). Government spending, monetary policy, and the real exchange rate. Journal of International Money and Finance, 56, 178-201. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.09.010 Branger, N. y Larsen, L. S. (2013). Robust portfolio choice with uncertainty about jump and diffusion risk. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(12), 5036-5047. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.08.023 Buiter, W. H. (1983). Measurement of the public sector deficit and its implications for policy evaluation and design. Staff Papers, 30(2), 306-349. Checherita-Westphal, C. y Rother, P. (2012). The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area. European Economic Review, 56(7), 1392-1405. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.06.007 Duffie, D. (2005). Credit risk modeling with affine processes. Journal of Banking & Finance, 29(11), 2751-2802. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2005.02.006 Erceg, C. J., Guerrieri, L. y Gust, C. (2005). Expansionary fiscal shocks and the us trade deficit. En International Finance (Vol. 8, pp. 363-397). http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2005.00164.x Jiang, G. J. (1998). Jump-Diffusion Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics — Estimation via Indirect Inference, Working Paper, University of Groningen, The Netherlands. Jin, X. y Zhang, K. (2013). Dynamic optimal portfolio choice in a jump-diffusion model with investment constraints. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(5), 1733-1746. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.01.017 Kim, S. y Roubini, N. (2008). Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S. Journal of International Economics, 74(2), 362-383. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.05.012 Mao, X. (1997). Stochastic differential ecuations and applications, Horwood, Chichester. Moreno, J. (2011). Estimación de parámetros en ecuaciones diferenciales estocásticas aplicadas a finanzas. odeon, 6, 131-144. Phillips, P. C. B. (1972). The structural estimation of a stochastic differential equatiuon system. Econométrica, 40, pp. 1021-1041. Baldacci, E. y Kumar, M. (2010). Fiscal deficits, public debt, and sovereign bond yields. imf Working Papers (Vol. 10). Rodríguez, A. y Venegas, F. (2010). Efectos del tipo de cambio sobre el déficit público: modelos de simulación Monte Carlo. Contaduría y administración, 232, 11-40. Tsay, R. (2002). Analysis of Financial Time Series. New Jersey: Wiley. Uhlenbeck, G. E. y Ornstein, L. S. (1930). On the theory of Brownian motion. Physical Review, 36, pp. 823-841. Vaciseck, O. (1977). An equilibrium characterization of the Term Structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 5, pp. 177-188. Zhong, Y., Bao, Q. y Li, S. (2015). fx options pricing in logarithmic mean-reversion jumpdiffusion model with stochastic volatility. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 251, 1-13. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2014.11.040. Ball, C. y Torous, W. (1983). A simplified jump process for common stock returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative, 18(1), 53-65. Akgiray, V. y Booth, G. G. (1988). Mixed Diffusion-Jump Process Modeling of Exchange Rate Movements. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 70(4), 631-637. Agnello, L., Furceri, D. y Sousa, R. M. (2013). How best to measure discretionary fiscal policy? Assessing its impact on private spending. Economic Modelling, 34, 15-24. Aase, K. K. (1988). Contingent claims valuation when the security price is a combination of an itô process and random point process. Stochastic Processes and Their Applications, 28, 185-220. |
type_driver |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
type_coar |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
type_version |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
type_coarversion |
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |
type_content |
Text |
publishDate |
2017-11-09 |
date_accessioned |
2017-11-09T00:00:00Z |
date_available |
2017-11-09T00:00:00Z |
url |
https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/odeon/article/view/5098 |
url_doi |
https://doi.org/10.18601/17941113.n12.05 |
issn |
1794-1113 |
eissn |
2346-2140 |
doi |
10.18601/17941113.n12.05 |
citationstartpage |
119 |
citationendpage |
145 |
url2_str_mv |
https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/odeon/article/download/5098/6154 |
url3_str_mv |
https://revistas.uexternado.edu.co/index.php/odeon/article/download/5098/6348 |
_version_ |
1797157512177254400 |